Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

The impact of non-performing loans on bank lending in Europe: An empirical analysis

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, considerable attention has been paid to the accumulation of non-performing loans in the balance sheet of European banks and to its potential negative effects on bank lending to the real economy. Using a dataset composed of bank-specific information and country aggregates, we study the impact of the stock and the flow of non-performing loans on the lending activities of a sample of 75 European banks between 2014 and 2018. In general, higher rates of non-performing loans, together with other variables, are associated with lower growth rates of performing loans. This effect persists across several econometric specifications and is more significant for those banks exhibiting lower growth rates of performing loans. Similarly, our econometric analysis suggests that banks with higher decreases in their rate of non-performing loans tend to lend more to the real economy, an effect which is particularly intense at the right tail of the distribution. The findings of our paper can be useful for policymakers when addressing the resolution of non-performing loans in banks.     

Credit risk pricing and the rationality of lending decision-making within dual banking systems: A parametric approach

The reduction of non-performing loans, and making correct provisions for them, plays a primary role in the management and minimization of banking credit risk. However, these actions depend primarily upon the cost at which banks may dispose of these bad loans. Hence, this study aims to perceive the price of banks’ credit risk via estimating the shadow price of non-performing loans. We assess and compare the perceived price of the credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks operating in 9 countries from the Middle East and Asia, using a quadratic directional distance function. Following this, we evaluate the impact of different settings of directional vectors on shadow prices by conducting a risk-sensitivity analysis. Applying bootstrap regression, the factors affecting NPLs’ prices are further investigated. The paper concludes that the estimation of the shadow prices of bad loans can provide important elements in favor of credit risk management and, therefore, credit risk mitigation.     

外部融资、技术创新研发与企业成长--银行信贷与技术研发交互作用的经验研究

在当前经济转型升级的大背景下,要想保持经济长期可持续的增长,必然要求微观企业保持良好的成长态势和较高水平的生产效率。本文利用BEEPS的中国企业调查微观数据,考察了外部融资约束、银行信贷和技术研发影响企业绩效和企业成长的作用机制。研究表明：外部融资约束对企业生产效率有显著负面影响,企业技术研发对生产效率有显著的促进作用,外部融资约束通过技术研发投入途径对企业生产效率产生抑制效应;银行信贷对于企业生产效率有直接的负面影响,只有将其投入到技术研发活动中才会发挥促进企业成长的作用。     

论国有商业银行的双重功能与不良资产的双重成因

国有商业银行所形成的巨额不良资产，需要从其事实上履行的双重功能入手进行解析：国有商业银行在履行基本功能时，由于行业性风险产生的不良资产具有普遍性和内生性；但其在履行公共性功能时。由于承担的政策性风险和支付的履职成本无法分摊导致的超额不良资产，具有特殊性和外生性。因此。降低国有商业银行的不良资产，既要控制行业性风险，更要建立对其履行特殊功能所支付成本的合理分摊机制，并随着市场机制作用的增强从体制上逐步淡化其特殊功能，从根本上解决由外生性原因造成的超额不良资产。     

A novel profit cutting mechanism for Chinese Banks: Theory and Multi-dimensional evidence

As China’s macroeconomic growth faces increasing pressure from the global COVID-19 pandemic, a surprising and politically controversial phenomenon has emerged: the profitability of banks in China exceeded that of enterprises and non-financial industries. The People’s Bank of China and regulatory authorities have hence taken measures to incentivize banks to transfer part of their profits to enterprises, with the aim to stabilize enterprises and employment. This paper proposes a novel profit cutting mechanism focusing on loan structure adjustments to address the limitations of the current approach centering on lowering loan interest rates. The theoretical and empirical analysis show, at both the macro and micro level, that an increase in the proportion of credit loans can benefit the development of enterprises without weakening banks’ operating performance in the long term, leading to a Pareto improvement within enterprise-banking sectors. The findings suggest that banks in China should gradually adjust their loan structures by providing greater credit loan access to enterprises, either voluntarily or directed by policy.     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.     

对小微企业贷款“个人化”的风险控制问题探析--以吉林省吉林市为例

小微企业作为我国国民经济和社会发展的重要力量，在保持国民经济平稳快速发展方面发挥了重要作用。但一直以来，小微企业普遍存在贷款难问题。为解决小微企业贷款难的瓶颈障碍，部分小微企业采取通过“个人化”贷款方式获取融资的模式。本文以小微企业贷款“个人化”的主要特征和出现的背景为切入点，剖析小微企业“个人化”贷款产生的风险问题，进而提出风险控制的政策建议。     

商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。